We don’t often have “regime” changes, but when they happen, it’s meaningful and long lasting. So yes, I will go ahead and say it, this time is different. And what’s changed is actually structural in how markets work and investment decisions are made. This has vast implications for future investing decisions. And just as an…

I saw an interesting chart the other day where the author was comparing home sales and unemployment. The point was that given how large the housing market is and the “ripple” affect it has throughout the economy, changes in home sales lead unemployment. This is also similar to Kantrowitz’s “H.O.P.E.” framework. Now be careful to…

There have been a number of indicators that the consumer is starting to crack. And that’s at pretty much full employment. The deadly straw for the camel is if/when unemployment begins to accelerate. I think employment remains the key lynchpin holding everything together. So it wouldn’t be great in an election year if unemployment spikes…

It’s extremely difficult to win the Triple Crown in Thoroughbred Racing. Only 13 horses have done it with the first being in 1919. Needless to say, it’s rare and seems to be a rather appropriate analogy for looking back at big name tech over the past 15 years. Indexes are overly concentrated in these names…

Markets have rebounded in the last couple of weeks on the renewed notion that the Fed will cut rates this year. This is due to the slew of data recently that wasn’t so great, after all, “bad news is good news.” Here’s a short list – Consumer Confidence lower ISM Manufacturing lower ISM Manufacturing Prices…

Most people look at index returns and think those would have been realized returns if they had invested in XYZ. The reality is that is completely wrong of course. What matters is WHEN you buy and WHEN you sell. Unfortunately, many Meme or Speculative Tech investors learned this the hard way in the last few…

Gold has broken out recently and the persistency of the breakout is a big change. Gold has been range bound for a number of years now and consolidating the last bull run from 2018-2020. Why is this happening? Let me tell you, precious metals (in general) is an incredibly complicated asset class for analysis. The…

In thinking about the Job Openings number today, I was reminded of just how “broken” things are. Don’t get me wrong, regime changes happen in the world of finance over time. Relationships between asset classes can change due to a variety of reasons. Sometimes these are structural and sometimes they are temporary. Covid “broke” a…

It’s March Madness and brackets have really been blowing up. This is actually one of the first years I haven’t even filled out a bracket, too much work to do. But in watching some games last weekend, I started thinking about “luck”. Then I drove by a billboard showing one of the lotteries was over…

Advance Child Tax Credit and EIP Must Be Reconciled on Your 2021 Return Article Highlights American Rescue Plan Advance Payments Payment Reconciliation IRS Letter 6419 Refund May Not Be as Expected Unusual CTC Circumstances Economic Impact Payment Letter 6475 Early in 2021 Congress passed the American Rescue Plan which included a provision that increased the…